FIM District Muskegon Event presented by RENK

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

133.2 – 200.16

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

94 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 40 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 402.2 ±12.4

4827Minerbotics

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 11.99Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8612Calvin Christian Robotics

Season APEX 237.6Event APEX 109.65Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6094Manic Mechanics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 11.56Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 431 ±10.7

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 80.2Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3458Code Blue

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 11.93Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2075Enigma Robotics

Season APEX 234.4Event APEX 108.03Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4827, 8612, 6094

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4827, 8612, 6094

Auto

29.3 22%

Teleop

78.2 59%

Endgame

24.5 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4967, 3458, 2075

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4967, 3458, 2075

Auto

46.4 23%

Teleop

115.9 58%

Endgame

36.5 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score133.2pts

Blue projected score200.2pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67
Score range: 110–223
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 335 vs event baseline 127.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

402.2Season APEX431

29.3Auto46.4

78.2Teleop115.9

24.5Endgame36.5

56Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	50
teleop	37	119
endgame	18	72
foul	5	0
total	94	241

Result

Final score

94 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 40 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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