FIM District Muskegon Event presented by RENK

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

165.01 – 65.8

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

178 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 45.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 370.8 ±11.7

2771Code Red Robotics the Stray Dogs

Season APEX 115.3Event APEX 62.08Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8285Bionic Bulldogs

Season APEX 33Event APEX 10.41Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3572Wavelength

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 92.52Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215.7 ±11.7

7054SC Sailors

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 59.8Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10607DAAS Jaguars

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX -5.71Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6428STEMINEERS

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 11.71Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2771, 8285, 3572

/ 100 compat

Projected

165 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2771, 8285, 3572

Auto

28.3 17%

Teleop

98.1 60%

Endgame

37.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7054, 10607, 6428

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7054, 10607, 6428

Auto

10.1 17%

Teleop

30.6 50%

Endgame

20.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.21 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score165pts

Blue projected score65.8pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 99.2
Score range: 43–188
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 321 vs event baseline 127.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

370.8Season APEX215.7

28.3Auto10.1

98.1Teleop30.6

37.7Endgame20.2

35Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	22
teleop	89	94
endgame	63	27
foul	5	0
total	178	143

Result

Final score

178 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 45.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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