FIM District Muskegon Event presented by RENK

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

113.54 – 36.06

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

137 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 31.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 260.2 ±12.7

6128M.O.T.O.R (More Than Our Robot)

Season APEX 101Event APEX 48.31Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7248Tactical Hams

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 15.6Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4004M.A.R.S. Rovers

Season APEX 97.6Event APEX 49.63Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227.9 ±11.6

11503TALONS

Season APEX 88.2Event APEX 16.63Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

107Team R.O.B.O.T.I.C.S.

Season APEX 89.2Event APEX 10.67Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10654Tiger Bytes

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 8.76Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6128, 7248, 4004

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6128, 7248, 4004

Auto

25.4 23%

Teleop

52.0 47%

Endgame

34.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11503, 107, 10654

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11503, 107, 10654

Auto

11.7 33%

Teleop

2.8 8%

Endgame

20.9 59%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.99 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score113.5pts

Blue projected score36.1pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 77.5
Score range: 13–137
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 213 vs event baseline 127.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

260.2Season APEX227.9

25.4Auto11.7

52Teleop2.8

34Endgame20.9

44Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	14
teleop	93	29
endgame	20	13
foul	0	20
total	137	76

Result

Final score

137 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 31.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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