FIM District Muskegon Event presented by RENK

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

76.76 – 96.73

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

113 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 29.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 195.1 ±12.7

2405Techno Trojans

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 26.54Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9743MV TITANS

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 48.92Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6079JET SET

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 1.3Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 244.1 ±12.8

11522Union HS

Season APEX 79.9Event APEX -2.94Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9754Vestabots

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 15.68Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4956RoboSharks

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 83.99Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2405, 9743, 6079

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2405, 9743, 6079

Auto

19.3 25%

Teleop

56.1 72%

Endgame

2.7 3%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11522, 9754, 4956

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11522, 9754, 4956

Auto

14.3 15%

Teleop

50.8 53%

Endgame

30.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score76.8pts

Blue projected score96.7pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20
Score range: 54–120
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 232 vs event baseline 127.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

195.1Season APEX244.1

19.3Auto14.3

56.1Teleop50.8

2.7Endgame30.5

24Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	26
teleop	59	52
endgame	25	36
foul	0	5
total	113	119

Result

Final score

113 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 29.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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