FIM District Muskegon Event presented by RENK

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

173.04 – 92.67

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

214 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 29.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 440 ±11.7

7810Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 47Event APEX 16.64Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6090Wayland Wildcats

A+

Season APEX 298.7Event APEX 127.56Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6877Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 94.3Event APEX 28.84Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 194.2 ±13.3

6005Cardinaltronics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 27.64Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5470The Cowpunchers

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 19.27Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9106Spires

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 45.76Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7810, 6090, 6877

/ 100 compat

Projected

173 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7810, 6090, 6877

Auto

45.7 27%

Teleop

78.7 46%

Endgame

45.4 27%

Strengths

· 6090 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6005, 5470, 9106

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6005, 5470, 9106

Auto

12.7 14%

Teleop

56.2 60%

Endgame

24.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score173pts

Blue projected score92.7pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80.4
Score range: 70–196
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 288 vs event baseline 126.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

440Season APEX194.2

45.7Auto12.7

78.7Teleop56.2

45.4Endgame24.4

53Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	14
teleop	100	29
endgame	52	31
foul	0	0
total	214	74

Result

Final score

214 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 29.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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