FIM District Muskegon Event presented by RENK

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

112.36 – 191.91

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

126 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 11.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 286.1 ±11.2

6428STEMINEERS

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 18.88Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11503TALONS

Season APEX 88.2Event APEX 16.5Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 76.98Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 449.2 ±10.5

9106Spires

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 42.17Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7054SC Sailors

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 77.49Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7160Ludington O-Bots

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 72.25Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6428, 11503, 4967

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6428, 11503, 4967

Auto

35.8 34%

Teleop

35.9 34%

Endgame

34.8 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9106, 7054, 7160

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9106, 7054, 7160

Auto

32.5 17%

Teleop

114.6 60%

Endgame

44.1 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.07 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112.4pts

Blue projected score191.9pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79.5
Score range: 87–217
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 308 vs event baseline 140.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

286.1Season APEX449.2

35.8Auto32.5

35.9Teleop114.6

34.8Endgame44.1

12Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	16
teleop	55	111
endgame	38	50
foul	0	5
total	126	182

Result

Final score

126 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 11.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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