FIM District Muskegon Event presented by RENK

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

97.94 – 57.88

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

77 – 87

Prediction missed · off by 25 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 244.3 ±12.7

6094Manic Mechanics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 14.41Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9756Robo Panthers

Season APEX 99Event APEX 49.39Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9541M st*e(squared)

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 34.14Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 206.7 ±12.2

11503TALONS

Season APEX 88.2Event APEX 16.24Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2405Techno Trojans

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 25.86Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7810Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 47Event APEX 15.78Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6094, 9756, 9541

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6094, 9756, 9541

Auto

9.8 10%

Teleop

46.7 47%

Endgame

43.1 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11503, 2405, 7810

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11503, 2405, 7810

Auto

25.7 46%

Teleop

21.0 38%

Endgame

8.6 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score97.9pts

Blue projected score57.9pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.1
Score range: 35–121
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 164 vs event baseline 126.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

244.3Season APEX206.7

9.8Auto25.7

46.7Teleop21

43.1Endgame8.6

51Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	19
teleop	46	50
endgame	7	18
foul	0	0
total	77	87

Result

Final score

77 – 87

Prediction missed · off by 25 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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