FIM District Muskegon Event presented by RENK

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

160.42 – 61.93

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

161 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 38.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 407.4 ±12.4

7248Tactical Hams

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 14.01Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6428STEMINEERS

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 15.88Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6090Wayland Wildcats

A+

Season APEX 298.7Event APEX 130.53Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 275.6 ±12.8

9754Vestabots

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 2.35Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5505V2 - Volts Squared

Season APEX 128.3Event APEX 53.79Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6094Manic Mechanics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 5.79Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7248, 6428, 6090

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7248, 6428, 6090

Auto

50.5 32%

Teleop

70.6 45%

Endgame

34.5 22%

Strengths

· 6090 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9754, 5505, 6094

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9754, 5505, 6094

Auto

22.8 38%

Teleop

16.5 28%

Endgame

20.3 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.1 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score160.4pts

Blue projected score61.9pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 98.5
Score range: 40–182
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 300 vs event baseline 122.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

407.4Season APEX275.6

50.5Auto22.8

70.6Teleop16.5

34.5Endgame20.3

0Consistency112

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	29
teleop	44	65
endgame	54	45
foul	0	0
total	161	139

Result

Final score

161 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 38.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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