FIM District Muskegon Event presented by RENK

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

105.53 – 239.64

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

125 – 276

Prediction correct · off by 27.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 383.4 ±11.7

7810Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 47Event APEX 14.88Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

107Team R.O.B.O.T.I.C.S.

Season APEX 89.2Event APEX 10.4Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7160Ludington O-Bots

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 80.25Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 547 ±10.7

3572Wavelength

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 82.24Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8612Calvin Christian Robotics

Season APEX 237.6Event APEX 110.78Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9743MV TITANS

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 46.62Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7810, 107, 7160

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7810, 107, 7160

Auto

17.4 17%

Teleop

62.7 61%

Endgame

22.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3572, 8612, 9743

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3572, 8612, 9743

Auto

41.1 17%

Teleop

144.5 61%

Endgame

51.5 22%

Strengths

· 8612 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score105.5pts

Blue projected score239.6pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -134.1
Score range: 84–262
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 401 vs event baseline 120.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

383.4Season APEX547

17.4Auto41.1

62.7Teleop144.5

22.3Endgame51.5

78Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	51
teleop	58	169
endgame	43	56
foul	0	0
total	125	276

Result

Final score

125 – 276

Prediction correct · off by 27.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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