FIM District Muskegon Event presented by RENK

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

18.31 – 84.44

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

36 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 39.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.8 ±13.3

107Team R.O.B.O.T.I.C.S.

Season APEX 89.2Event APEX 13.82Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6094Manic Mechanics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 4.2Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3458Code Blue

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 0.29Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 385.8 ±11.7

2075Enigma Robotics

Season APEX 234.4Event APEX 91.83Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11522Union HS

Season APEX 79.9Event APEX -16.28Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2405Techno Trojans

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 8.89Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 107, 6094, 3458

/ 100 compat

Projected

18.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 107, 6094, 3458

Auto

5.1 28%

Teleop

-3.3 0%

Endgame

16.2 90%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2075, 11522, 2405

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2075, 11522, 2405

Auto

30.4 37%

Teleop

38.9 47%

Endgame

13.4 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.99 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score18.3pts

Blue projected score84.4pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.1
Score range: -4–106
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 181 vs event baseline 120.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

220.8Season APEX385.8

5.1Auto30.4

-3.3Teleop38.9

16.2Endgame13.4

113Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	38
teleop	12	95
endgame	9	12
foul	0	0
total	36	145

Result

Final score

36 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 39.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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