FIM District Muskegon Event presented by RENK

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

92.96 – 182.09

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 33 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 215.5 ±12.2

2771Code Red Robotics the Stray Dogs

Season APEX 115.3Event APEX 65.45Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9754Vestabots

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 17.03Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10607DAAS Jaguars

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 10.48Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 388.2 ±11.1

9541M st*e(squared)

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 36.28Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2075Enigma Robotics

Season APEX 234.4Event APEX 106.75Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6877Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 94.3Event APEX 39.06Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2771, 9754, 10607

/ 100 compat

Projected

93 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2771, 9754, 10607

Auto

16.5 19%

Teleop

51.0 59%

Endgame

19.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9541, 2075, 6877

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9541, 2075, 6877

Auto

30.1 17%

Teleop

106.0 58%

Endgame

45.9 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.03 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score93pts

Blue projected score182.1pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -89.1
Score range: 68–207
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 209 vs event baseline 140.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

215.5Season APEX388.2

16.5Auto30.1

51Teleop106

19.5Endgame45.9

100Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	30
teleop	29	74
endgame	13	54
foul	0	0
total	51	158

Result

Final score

51 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 33 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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