FIM District Muskegon Event presented by RENK

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

152.35 – 126.38

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

135 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 17.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 381.2 ±11.7

8285Bionic Bulldogs

Season APEX 33Event APEX 7.27Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6128M.O.T.O.R (More Than Our Robot)

Season APEX 101Event APEX 58.69Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7160Ludington O-Bots

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 86.39Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 271.2 ±12.7

6877Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 94.3Event APEX 40.12Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2771Code Red Robotics the Stray Dogs

Season APEX 115.3Event APEX 70.07Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7248Tactical Hams

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 16.19Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8285, 6128, 7160

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8285, 6128, 7160

Auto

22.5 15%

Teleop

98.5 64%

Endgame

32.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6877, 2771, 7248

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6877, 2771, 7248

Auto

13.9 11%

Teleop

73.4 58%

Endgame

40.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score152.4pts

Blue projected score126.4pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26
Score range: 104–174
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 243 vs event baseline 119.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

381.2Season APEX271.2

22.5Auto13.9

98.5Teleop73.4

32Endgame40

89Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	14
teleop	84	62
endgame	22	32
foul	0	0
total	135	108

Result

Final score

135 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 17.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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