FIM District Muskegon Event presented by RENK

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

112.28 – 75.25

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

126 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 9.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 250.9 ±12.4

5470The Cowpunchers

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 29.47Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 62.56Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7810Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 47Event APEX 20.25Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 198.9 ±13.3

9754Vestabots

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 5.04Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10654Tiger Bytes

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 21.84Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9743MV TITANS

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 48.37Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5470, 4967, 7810

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5470, 4967, 7810

Auto

28.2 26%

Teleop

67.0 61%

Endgame

14.5 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9754, 10654, 9743

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9754, 10654, 9743

Auto

20.7 27%

Teleop

46.4 61%

Endgame

9.5 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112.3pts

Blue projected score75.3pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37
Score range: 53–134
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 206 vs event baseline 120.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

250.9Season APEX198.9

28.2Auto20.7

67Teleop46.4

14.5Endgame9.5

48Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	22
teleop	60	32
endgame	29	26
foul	0	0
total	126	80

Result

Final score

126 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 9.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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