FIM District Muskegon Event presented by RENK

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

60.77 – 108.26

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 22.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 177.6 ±13.9

6428STEMINEERS

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 28.95Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6005Cardinaltronics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 28.89Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9754Vestabots

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 2.93Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241 ±12.2

4956RoboSharks

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 70.02Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4827Minerbotics

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 4.92Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9541M st*e(squared)

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 33.32Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6428, 6005, 9754

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6428, 6005, 9754

Auto

8.9 14%

Teleop

38.2 62%

Endgame

14.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4956, 4827, 9541

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4956, 4827, 9541

Auto

25.3 23%

Teleop

58.9 54%

Endgame

25.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score60.8pts

Blue projected score108.3pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47.5
Score range: 41–128
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 184 vs event baseline 113.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

177.6Season APEX241

8.9Auto25.3

38.2Teleop58.9

14.4Endgame25.4

38Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	23
teleop	20	78
endgame	9	37
foul	0	0
total	46	138

Result

Final score

46 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 22.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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