FIM District Muskegon Event presented by RENK

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

59.22 – 36.28

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

47 – 12

Prediction correct · off by 18.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 221.2 ±12.7

9756Robo Panthers

Season APEX 99Event APEX 38.15Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8285Bionic Bulldogs

Season APEX 33Event APEX 12.61Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

107Team R.O.B.O.T.I.C.S.

Season APEX 89.2Event APEX 8.46Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 218.8 ±13.9

5470The Cowpunchers

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 20.35Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11522Union HS

Season APEX 79.9Event APEX 2.73Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6094Manic Mechanics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 13.2Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9756, 8285, 107

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9756, 8285, 107

Auto

6.2 11%

Teleop

26.1 45%

Endgame

25.1 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5470, 11522, 6094

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5470, 11522, 6094

Auto

11.4 36%

Teleop

12.5 39%

Endgame

8.0 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score59.2pts

Blue projected score36.3pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.9
Score range: 11–84
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 59 vs event baseline 140.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

221.2Season APEX218.8

6.2Auto11.4

26.1Teleop12.5

25.1Endgame8

54Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	2	5
teleop	32	7
endgame	13	0
foul	0	0
total	47	12

Result

Final score

47 – 12

Prediction correct · off by 18.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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