Qualification · Qualification 26
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
199.96 – 151.47
65%35%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
139 – 138
Prediction correct · off by 37.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 302.5 ±11
Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 36.23Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 83.04Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 128.3Event APEX 80.69Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 434.8 ±10.7
Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 76.23Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 3.37Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 71.87Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2405, 4956, 5505
82
/ 100 compatProjected
200 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 2405, 4956, 5505
Auto
36.9 19%
Teleop
109.9 56%
Endgame
49.6 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 59%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3572, 9754, 4967
80
/ 100 compatProjected
151.5 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 3572, 9754, 4967
Auto
36.4 25%
Teleop
84.6 58%
Endgame
25.5 17%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 59%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.37
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score200pts
Blue projected score151.5pts
Red win probability65%
Event bonus sample170alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 59%, blue 62%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 48.5
- Score range
- 131–220
- Upset likelihood
- 35%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Match context
Upset
Close match
High scoring
Combined score 277 vs event baseline 110.4.
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
302.5Season APEX434.8
36.9Auto36.4
109.9Teleop84.6
49.6Endgame25.5
26Consistency83
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 38 | 53 |
| teleop | 60 | 49 |
| endgame | 36 | 36 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 139 | 138 |
Result
Final score
139 – 138
Prediction correct · off by 37.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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