FIM District Muskegon Event presented by RENK

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

138 – 98.22

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

178 – 222

Prediction missed · off by 81.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 331.6 ±11

9756Robo Panthers

Season APEX 99Event APEX 18.5Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4956RoboSharks

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 78.55Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7054SC Sailors

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 40.95Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 427.5 ±11.2

8612Calvin Christian Robotics

Season APEX 237.6Event APEX 53.49Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7248Tactical Hams

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX -17.26Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5505V2 - Volts Squared

Season APEX 128.3Event APEX 61.99Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9756, 4956, 7054

/ 100 compat

Projected

138 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9756, 4956, 7054

Auto

12.5 10%

Teleop

68.2 53%

Endgame

47.1 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8612, 7248, 5505

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8612, 7248, 5505

Auto

32.7 35%

Teleop

44.3 47%

Endgame

17.6 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score138pts

Blue projected score98.2pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.8
Score range: 79–157
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 400 vs event baseline 105.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

331.6Season APEX427.5

12.5Auto32.7

68.2Teleop44.3

47.1Endgame17.6

67Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	40
teleop	117	139
endgame	54	43
foul	0	0
total	178	222

Result

Final score

178 – 222

Prediction missed · off by 81.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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