FIM District Muskegon Event presented by RENK

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

52.93 – 106.86

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

23 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 21.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 157.8 ±12.2

9106Spires

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 47.67Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10607DAAS Jaguars

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 0.31Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7810Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 47Event APEX 4.95Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 223 ±12.1

2405Techno Trojans

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 46.81Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10654Tiger Bytes

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 19.07Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6128M.O.T.O.R (More Than Our Robot)

Season APEX 101Event APEX 40.98Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9106, 10607, 7810

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9106, 10607, 7810

Auto

14.3 32%

Teleop

35.1 79%

Endgame

-4.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2405, 10654, 6128

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2405, 10654, 6128

Auto

32.8 30%

Teleop

53.4 48%

Endgame

24.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score52.9pts

Blue projected score106.9pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.9
Score range: 33–127
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 116 vs event baseline 109.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

157.8Season APEX223

14.3Auto32.8

35.1Teleop53.4

-4.8Endgame24.6

87Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	27
teleop	3	49
endgame	2	17
foul	0	0
total	23	93

Result

Final score

23 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 21.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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