FIM District Muskegon Event presented by RENK

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

86.05 – 50.68

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

75 – 16

Prediction correct · off by 22.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 201 ±12.2

7248Tactical Hams

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 11.44Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4956RoboSharks

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 75.27Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6079JET SET

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX -0.66Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 161.8 ±13.9

3458Code Blue

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 14.94Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6005Cardinaltronics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 21.8Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7810Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 47Event APEX 13.94Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7248, 4956, 6079

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7248, 4956, 6079

Auto

13.4 15%

Teleop

49.3 56%

Endgame

25.5 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3458, 6005, 7810

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3458, 6005, 7810

Auto

10.5 20%

Teleop

26.2 49%

Endgame

16.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score86.1pts

Blue projected score50.7pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.4
Score range: 26–111
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 91 vs event baseline 140.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

201Season APEX161.8

13.4Auto10.5

49.3Teleop26.2

25.5Endgame16.9

56Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	8
teleop	28	5
endgame	40	3
foul	0	0
total	75	16

Result

Final score

75 – 16

Prediction correct · off by 22.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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