FIM District Muskegon Event presented by RENK

Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

71.09 – 131.16

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 17 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 277.7 ±12.7

6094Manic Mechanics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 14.35Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6877Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 94.3Event APEX 33.9Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4004M.A.R.S. Rovers

Season APEX 97.6Event APEX 22.84Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 441.6 ±11.2

7160Ludington O-Bots

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 75.99Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

85B.O.B. (Built on Brains)

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 34.21Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6005Cardinaltronics

Season APEX 69Event APEX 20.96Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6094, 6877, 4004

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6094, 6877, 4004

Auto

8.4 12%

Teleop

30.9 45%

Endgame

29.3 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7160, 85, 6005

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7160, 85, 6005

Auto

13.8 11%

Teleop

86.5 67%

Endgame

29.2 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score71.1pts

Blue projected score131.2pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -60.1
Score range: 51–151
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 224 vs event baseline 109.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

277.7Season APEX441.6

8.4Auto13.8

30.9Teleop86.5

29.3Endgame29.2

94Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	29
teleop	13	98
endgame	41	32
foul	0	0
total	65	159

Result

Final score

65 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 17 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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