FIM District Muskegon Event presented by RENK

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

33.06 – 154.12

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 244

Prediction correct · off by 50.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.1 ±12.8

5470The Cowpunchers

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 5.03Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4827Minerbotics

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 10.75Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11503TALONS

Season APEX 88.2Event APEX 17.28Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 368.8 ±10.5

4956RoboSharks

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 48.95Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 56.24Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2771Code Red Robotics the Stray Dogs

Season APEX 115.3Event APEX 48.93Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5470, 4827, 11503

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5470, 4827, 11503

Auto

18.2 55%

Teleop

7.0 21%

Endgame

7.7 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4956, 4967, 2771

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4956, 4967, 2771

Auto

20.0 13%

Teleop

72.9 48%

Endgame

58.5 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.81 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score33.1pts

Blue projected score154.1pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -121.1
Score range: 14–173
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 289 vs event baseline 107.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

220.1Season APEX368.8

18.2Auto20

7Teleop72.9

7.7Endgame58.5

111Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	44
teleop	12	158
endgame	10	42
foul	0	0
total	45	244

Result

Final score

45 – 244

Prediction correct · off by 50.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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