FIM District Muskegon Event presented by RENK

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

42.34 – 95.7

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

100 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 40.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 372.9 ±12.4

3458Code Blue

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX -4.38Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7160Ludington O-Bots

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 67.82Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11522Union HS

Season APEX 79.9Event APEX -21.1Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 232.6 ±12.1

6128M.O.T.O.R (More Than Our Robot)

Season APEX 101Event APEX 35.86Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9106Spires

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 36.58Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9541M st*e(squared)

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 23.26Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3458, 7160, 11522

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3458, 7160, 11522

Auto

8.1 17%

Teleop

28.9 60%

Endgame

10.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6128, 9106, 9541

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6128, 9106, 9541

Auto

19.4 22%

Teleop

42.0 47%

Endgame

28.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score42.3pts

Blue projected score95.7pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.4
Score range: 23–115
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 219 vs event baseline 106.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

372.9Season APEX232.6

8.1Auto19.4

28.9Teleop42

10.9Endgame28.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	26
teleop	46	66
endgame	36	27
foul	0	0
total	100	119

Result

Final score

100 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 40.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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