Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
76.7 – 20.69
67%33%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
97 – 60
Prediction correct · off by 29.8 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 387.5 ±12.4
Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 17.34Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 9.1Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 50.26Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 185.5 ±12.2
Season APEX 45.8Event APEX -11.56Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 101Event APEX 23.15Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 9.1Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4827, 9754, 7160
54
/ 100 compatProjected
76.7 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 4827, 9754, 7160
Auto
7.7 10%
Teleop
46.5 60%
Endgame
22.9 30%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 51%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3458, 6128, 10607
15
/ 100 compatProjected
20.7 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 3458, 6128, 10607
Auto
2.9 15%
Teleop
-0.4 0%
Endgame
16.9 87%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 51%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.15
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score76.7pts
Blue projected score20.7pts
Red win probability67%
Event bonus sample170alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 51%, blue 44%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 56
- Score range
- 2–96
- Upset likelihood
- 33%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
387.5Season APEX185.5
7.7Auto2.9
46.5Teleop-0.4
22.9Endgame16.9
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 29 | 17 |
| teleop | 58 | 31 |
| endgame | 10 | 12 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 97 | 60 |
Result
Final score
97 – 60
Prediction correct · off by 29.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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