FIM District Muskegon Event presented by RENK

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

89.99 – 104.6

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

125 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 52.7 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 291.2 ±11.7

7054SC Sailors

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 54.69Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8285Bionic Bulldogs

Season APEX 33Event APEX -0.34Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5505V2 - Volts Squared

Season APEX 128.3Event APEX 35.64Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 335.3 ±11.7

9743MV TITANS

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 30.67Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 46.47Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4004M.A.R.S. Rovers

Season APEX 97.6Event APEX 27.46Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7054, 8285, 5505

/ 100 compat

Projected

90 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7054, 8285, 5505

Auto

9.2 10%

Teleop

51.5 57%

Endgame

29.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9743, 4967, 4004

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9743, 4967, 4004

Auto

21.3 21%

Teleop

48.7 47%

Endgame

33.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score90pts

Blue projected score104.6pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.6
Score range: 72–123
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 300 vs event baseline 100.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

291.2Season APEX335.3

9.2Auto21.3

51.5Teleop48.7

29.5Endgame33.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	37
teleop	61	113
endgame	39	25
foul	5	0
total	125	175

Result

Final score

125 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 52.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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