FIM District Muskegon Event presented by RENK

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

142.18 – 284.59

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

88 – 253

Prediction correct · off by 42.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 301.8 ±12.2

4827Minerbotics

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 11.05Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4004M.A.R.S. Rovers

Season APEX 97.6Event APEX 56.95Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

85B.O.B. (Built on Brains)

Season APEX 125.4Event APEX 74.18Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 607.8 ±9.9

8612Calvin Christian Robotics

Season APEX 237.6Event APEX 111.27Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6090Wayland Wildcats

A+

Season APEX 298.7Event APEX 134.45Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2405Techno Trojans

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 38.87Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4827, 4004, 85

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4827, 4004, 85

Auto

32.2 24%

Teleop

74.2 55%

Endgame

29.4 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8612, 6090, 2405

/ 100 compat

Projected

284.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8612, 6090, 2405

Auto

79.4 28%

Teleop

148.5 53%

Endgame

53.2 19%

Strengths

· 6090 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.8 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score142.2pts

Blue projected score284.6pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -142.4
Score range: 117–310
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 341 vs event baseline 140.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

301.8Season APEX607.8

32.2Auto79.4

74.2Teleop148.5

29.4Endgame53.2

70Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	68
teleop	43	139
endgame	22	46
foul	0	0
total	88	253

Result

Final score

88 – 253

Prediction correct · off by 42.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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