FIM District Muskegon Event presented by RENK

Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

221.26 – 253.22

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

306 – 301

Prediction missed · off by 66.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 460.5 ±9.9

9106Spires

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 38.82Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 73.97Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8612Calvin Christian Robotics

Season APEX 237.6Event APEX 108.47Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 621.3 ±9.3

11503TALONS

Season APEX 88.2Event APEX 15.07Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6090Wayland Wildcats

A+

Season APEX 298.7Event APEX 133.08Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2075Enigma Robotics

Season APEX 234.4Event APEX 105.07Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9106, 4967, 8612

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9106, 4967, 8612

Auto

56.9 26%

Teleop

117.3 54%

Endgame

44.6 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11503, 6090, 2075

/ 100 compat

Projected

253.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11503, 6090, 2075

Auto

64.6 26%

Teleop

130.9 52%

Endgame

56.3 22%

Strengths

· 6090 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score221.3pts

Blue projected score253.2pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32
Score range: 196–278
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 607 vs event baseline 138.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

460.5Season APEX621.3

56.9Auto64.6

117.3Teleop130.9

44.6Endgame56.3

14Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	71
teleop	147	148
endgame	72	82
foul	10	0
total	306	301

Result

Final score

306 – 301

Prediction missed · off by 66.3 pts

Match videos

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