FIM District Muskegon Event presented by RENK

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

221.53 – 259.19

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

217 – 206

Prediction missed · off by 28.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 460.5 ±9.9

9106Spires

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 39.16Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 73.94Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8612Calvin Christian Robotics

Season APEX 237.6Event APEX 108.43Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 621.3 ±9.3

11503TALONS

Season APEX 88.2Event APEX 16.94Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6090Wayland Wildcats

A+

Season APEX 298.7Event APEX 135.13Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2075Enigma Robotics

Season APEX 234.4Event APEX 107.12Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9106, 4967, 8612

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9106, 4967, 8612

Auto

55.1 25%

Teleop

117.9 54%

Endgame

46.5 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11503, 6090, 2075

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11503, 6090, 2075

Auto

65.9 26%

Teleop

133.6 52%

Endgame

58.1 23%

Strengths

· 6090 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score221.5pts

Blue projected score259.2pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.7
Score range: 197–284
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 423 vs event baseline 137.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

460.5Season APEX621.3

55.1Auto65.9

117.9Teleop133.6

46.5Endgame58.1

9Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	55
teleop	112	110
endgame	31	41
foul	5	0
total	217	206

Result

Final score

217 – 206

Prediction missed · off by 28.9 pts

Match videos

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