FIM District Mt Pleasant Event presented by AT&T

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

141.14 – 108.47

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

102 – 121

Prediction missed · off by 25.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 271.1 ±11

5436Cyber Cats

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 64.06Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5982Merrill's Circuits of Destruction

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 35.68Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10978Complete Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 41.4Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227.8 ±12.1

2405Techno Trojans

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 30.95Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9661Huskie STEAM

Season APEX 66.7Event APEX 41.38Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9773Cardinal Robotics

Season APEX 89.6Event APEX 36.14Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5436, 5982, 10978

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5436, 5982, 10978

Auto

32.2 24%

Teleop

69.8 53%

Endgame

30.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2405, 9661, 9773

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2405, 9661, 9773

Auto

32.5 31%

Teleop

46.6 44%

Endgame

26.7 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score141.1pts

Blue projected score108.5pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.7
Score range: 88–161
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 223 vs event baseline 108.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

271.1Season APEX227.8

32.2Auto32.5

69.8Teleop46.6

30.8Endgame26.7

8Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	37
teleop	52	54
endgame	29	30
foul	0	0
total	102	121

Result

Final score

102 – 121

Prediction missed · off by 25.8 pts

Match videos

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