FIM District Mt Pleasant Event presented by AT&T

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

148.96 – 150.02

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

210 – 154

Prediction missed · off by 32.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 383.1 ±10.5

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 69.3Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9673Volt Vespids

Season APEX 72.2Event APEX 16.29Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 63.37Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 343.4 ±11.1

6100MS Mobots

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 29.8Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8873Rockefeller Robotics

Season APEX 171.8Event APEX 66.04Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7195Twin River Robotics

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 54.18Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4381, 9673, 573

/ 100 compat

Projected

149 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4381, 9673, 573

Auto

32.8 22%

Teleop

88.0 60%

Endgame

26.2 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6100, 8873, 7195

/ 100 compat

Projected

150 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6100, 8873, 7195

Auto

20.9 14%

Teleop

86.7 59%

Endgame

38.9 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score149pts

Blue projected score150pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.1
Score range: 130–169
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 364 vs event baseline 107.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

383.1Season APEX343.4

32.8Auto20.9

88Teleop86.7

26.2Endgame38.9

20Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	34
teleop	121	74
endgame	44	46
foul	5	0
total	210	154

Result

Final score

210 – 154

Prediction missed · off by 32.5 pts

Match videos

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