FIM District Mt Pleasant Event presented by AT&T

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

112.27 – 95.57

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

90 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 14.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227.8 ±12.1

2405Techno Trojans

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 31.86Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9661Huskie STEAM

Season APEX 66.7Event APEX 42.91Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9773Cardinal Robotics

Season APEX 89.6Event APEX 37.5Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213.8 ±12.2

5697Bearcats

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 26.13Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6033Gadget Agents

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 50.4Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1711RAPTORS

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 19.04Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2405, 9661, 9773

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2405, 9661, 9773

Auto

32.6 30%

Teleop

50.0 46%

Endgame

26.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5697, 6033, 1711

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5697, 6033, 1711

Auto

36.5 38%

Teleop

34.0 36%

Endgame

24.8 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112.3pts

Blue projected score95.6pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.7
Score range: 77–131
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 179 vs event baseline 106.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227.8Season APEX213.8

32.6Auto36.5

50Teleop34

26.5Endgame24.8

73Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	25
teleop	30	47
endgame	29	17
foul	0	0
total	90	89

Result

Final score

90 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 14.4 pts

Match videos

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