FIM District Mt Pleasant Event presented by AT&T

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

97.64 – 122.83

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

106 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 10.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 181.9 ±12.2

3688Norsemen

Season APEX 84Event APEX 41.8Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5110Roboherd

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 36.77Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7210RoboJackets 7210

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 19.07Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 289.7 ±11

3767TC Titans

Season APEX 116.7Event APEX 46.67Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3655Tractor Technicians

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 33.98Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 42.18Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3688, 5110, 7210

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3688, 5110, 7210

Auto

23.5 25%

Teleop

38.3 41%

Endgame

31.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3767, 3655, 4422

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3767, 3655, 4422

Auto

24.7 21%

Teleop

67.6 57%

Endgame

25.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score97.6pts

Blue projected score122.8pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.2
Score range: 79–142
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 242 vs event baseline 106.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

181.9Season APEX289.7

23.5Auto24.7

38.3Teleop67.6

31.1Endgame25.6

6Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	21
teleop	55	78
endgame	23	37
foul	0	0
total	106	136

Result

Final score

106 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 10.8 pts

Match videos

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