FIM District Mt Pleasant Event presented by AT&T

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

139.35 – 95.44

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

197 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 31.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 343.4 ±11.1

6100MS Mobots

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 26.29Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8873Rockefeller Robotics

Season APEX 171.8Event APEX 62.46Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7195Twin River Robotics

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 50.6Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213.8 ±12.2

5697Bearcats

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 26.13Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6033Gadget Agents

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 50.23Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1711RAPTORS

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 19.08Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6100, 8873, 7195

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6100, 8873, 7195

Auto

18.7 14%

Teleop

81.6 60%

Endgame

35.8 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5697, 6033, 1711

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5697, 6033, 1711

Auto

36.5 37%

Teleop

36.6 37%

Endgame

24.7 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score139.4pts

Blue projected score95.4pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.9
Score range: 76–158
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 298 vs event baseline 105.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

343.4Season APEX213.8

18.7Auto36.5

81.6Teleop36.6

35.8Endgame24.7

18Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	37
teleop	110	27
endgame	53	27
foul	5	10
total	197	101

Result

Final score

197 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 31.6 pts

Match videos

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