FIM District Mt Pleasant Event presented by AT&T

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

160.4 – 128.04

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

176 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 28.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 383.1 ±10.5

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 73.14Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9673Volt Vespids

Season APEX 72.2Event APEX 20.05Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 67.21Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 289.7 ±11

3767TC Titans

Season APEX 116.7Event APEX 47.89Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3655Tractor Technicians

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 36.06Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 44.09Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4381, 9673, 573

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4381, 9673, 573

Auto

34.7 22%

Teleop

89.6 57%

Endgame

33.8 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3767, 3655, 4422

/ 100 compat

Projected

128 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3767, 3655, 4422

Auto

23.9 19%

Teleop

73.1 59%

Endgame

27.9 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score160.4pts

Blue projected score128pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.4
Score range: 108–180
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 346 vs event baseline 110.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

383.1Season APEX289.7

34.7Auto23.9

89.6Teleop73.1

33.8Endgame27.9

17Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	27
teleop	93	95
endgame	42	43
foul	5	5
total	176	170

Result

Final score

176 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 28.8 pts

Match videos

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