FIM District Mt Pleasant Event presented by AT&T

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

150.87 – 124.86

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

113 – 117

Prediction missed · off by 22.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 343.4 ±11.1

6100MS Mobots

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 30.48Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8873Rockefeller Robotics

Season APEX 171.8Event APEX 66.02Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7195Twin River Robotics

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 54.37Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 289.7 ±11

3767TC Titans

Season APEX 116.7Event APEX 46.9Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3655Tractor Technicians

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 34.92Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 43.04Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6100, 8873, 7195

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6100, 8873, 7195

Auto

23.0 16%

Teleop

84.8 57%

Endgame

40.0 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3767, 3655, 4422

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3767, 3655, 4422

Auto

24.2 20%

Teleop

68.9 57%

Endgame

27.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score150.9pts

Blue projected score124.9pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26
Score range: 105–171
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 230 vs event baseline 108.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

343.4Season APEX289.7

23Auto24.2

84.8Teleop68.9

40Endgame27.5

14Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	27
teleop	54	84
endgame	35	6
foul	0	0
total	113	117

Result

Final score

113 – 117

Prediction missed · off by 22.9 pts

Match videos

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