FIM District Mt Pleasant Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

46.29 – 38.63

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

27 – 24

Prediction correct · off by 17 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 190.9 ±12.2

3655Tractor Technicians

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 18.86Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1711RAPTORS

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 16.29Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6533BeaverTech noducks

Season APEX 45Event APEX 11.14Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 133.2 ±12.7

9662Valley Lutheran Chargers

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 11.14Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9650Mio Thunderbotz

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 11.2Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6033Gadget Agents

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 16.29Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3655, 1711, 6533

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3655, 1711, 6533

Auto

10.9 24%

Teleop

22.0 49%

Endgame

12.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9662, 9650, 6033

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9662, 9650, 6033

Auto

8.0 22%

Teleop

19.0 51%

Endgame

10.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score46.3pts

Blue projected score38.6pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.7
Score range: 26–59
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 51 vs event baseline 70.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

190.9Season APEX133.2

10.9Auto8

22Teleop19

12Endgame10.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	11
teleop	5	9
endgame	5	4
foul	0	0
total	27	24

Result

Final score

27 – 24

Prediction correct · off by 17 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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