FIM District Mt Pleasant Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.36 – 153.88

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

53 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 6.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 155.3 ±12.7

5110Roboherd

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 38.8Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6533BeaverTech noducks

Season APEX 45Event APEX 9.64Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5235Gears of Fortune

Season APEX 56.9Event APEX 6.92Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.1 ±10.5

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 70.76Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5084Team FridgeBot

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 19.15Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8873Rockefeller Robotics

Season APEX 171.8Event APEX 63.97Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5110, 6533, 5235

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5110, 6533, 5235

Auto

14.2 27%

Teleop

17.4 33%

Endgame

20.9 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4381, 5084, 8873

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4381, 5084, 8873

Auto

31.0 20%

Teleop

89.2 58%

Endgame

33.9 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.75 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score55.4pts

Blue projected score153.9pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -98.5
Score range: 37–172
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 101.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

155.3Season APEX323.1

14.2Auto31

17.4Teleop89.2

20.9Endgame33.9

11Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	40
teleop	21	92
endgame	20	11
foul	0	0
total	53	143

Result

Final score

53 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 6.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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