FIM District Mt Pleasant Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

90.11 – 73.76

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

131 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 21.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 298.2 ±11

5982Merrill's Circuits of Destruction

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 30.79Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1711RAPTORS

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 19.92Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7195Twin River Robotics

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 39.4Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 191.7 ±11.6

5235Gears of Fortune

Season APEX 56.9Event APEX 7.41Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5084Team FridgeBot

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 19.7Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3688Norsemen

Season APEX 84Event APEX 46.65Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5982, 1711, 7195

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5982, 1711, 7195

Auto

22.2 25%

Teleop

43.6 49%

Endgame

23.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5235, 5084, 3688

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5235, 5084, 3688

Auto

13.6 19%

Teleop

36.3 52%

Endgame

20.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score90.1pts

Blue projected score73.8pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.3
Score range: 56–108
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 202 vs event baseline 101.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

298.2Season APEX191.7

22.2Auto13.6

43.6Teleop36.3

23.4Endgame20.2

45Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	25
teleop	69	32
endgame	17	14
foul	5	0
total	131	71

Result

Final score

131 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 21.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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