FIM District Mt Pleasant Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

90.04 – 76.72

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

100 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 9.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 153.8 ±13.3

5697Bearcats

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 33.74Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3655Tractor Technicians

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 29.36Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7109Clare Chaos Theory

Season APEX 58.8Event APEX 26.94Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 164.6 ±13.3

6071The Aluminators

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 20.39Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9662Valley Lutheran Chargers

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 16.36Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9773Cardinal Robotics

Season APEX 89.6Event APEX 39.97Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5697, 3655, 7109

/ 100 compat

Projected

90 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5697, 3655, 7109

Auto

24.7 26%

Teleop

41.2 43%

Endgame

30.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6071, 9662, 9773

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6071, 9662, 9773

Auto

27.4 33%

Teleop

32.5 39%

Endgame

22.6 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score90pts

Blue projected score76.7pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.3
Score range: 59–108
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 167 vs event baseline 100.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

153.8Season APEX164.6

24.7Auto27.4

41.2Teleop32.5

30.9Endgame22.6

23Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	24
teleop	45	22
endgame	26	21
foul	0	0
total	100	67

Result

Final score

100 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 9.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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