FIM District Mt Pleasant Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

117.22 – 97.92

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

141 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 15.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 262.5 ±11.7

9594Ashley Bears

Season APEX 66.1Event APEX 23.15Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5982Merrill's Circuits of Destruction

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 27.17Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 66.9Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 156.5 ±12.1

6033Gadget Agents

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 47.89Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10614AEA Robolution

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 18.58Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3655Tractor Technicians

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 31.45Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9594, 5982, 4381

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9594, 5982, 4381

Auto

25.6 22%

Teleop

62.2 54%

Endgame

28.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6033, 10614, 3655

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6033, 10614, 3655

Auto

19.0 19%

Teleop

50.5 51%

Endgame

28.7 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score117.2pts

Blue projected score97.9pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.3
Score range: 80–135
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 231 vs event baseline 98.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

262.5Season APEX156.5

25.6Auto19

62.2Teleop50.5

28.1Endgame28.7

12Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	15
teleop	79	49
endgame	20	26
foul	0	0
total	141	90

Result

Final score

141 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 15.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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