FIM District Mt Pleasant Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

133.95 – 66.69

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

98 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 33.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 199.4 ±11.6

5234Marauder Bots

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 25.77Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 72.3Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5110Roboherd

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 35.88Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 206.9 ±12.8

5697Bearcats

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 24.75Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5982Merrill's Circuits of Destruction

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 33.43Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9568AstroBots

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 8.51Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5234, 4381, 5110

/ 100 compat

Projected

134 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5234, 4381, 5110

Auto

37.8 29%

Teleop

60.1 46%

Endgame

33.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5697, 5982, 9568

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5697, 5982, 9568

Auto

21.8 31%

Teleop

28.6 41%

Endgame

18.9 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score134pts

Blue projected score66.7pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.3
Score range: 46–155
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 133 vs event baseline 114.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

199.4Season APEX206.9

37.8Auto21.8

60.1Teleop28.6

33Endgame18.9

10Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	13
teleop	35	11
endgame	31	11
foul	0	0
total	98	35

Result

Final score

98 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 33.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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