FIM District Mt Pleasant Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

120.46 – 92.86

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

104 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 15.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 284.1 ±11

5235Gears of Fortune

Season APEX 56.9Event APEX 15.68Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 33.87Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 70.91Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 176.7 ±12.2

5697Bearcats

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 44.77Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10614AEA Robolution

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 20.99Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10978Complete Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 27.1Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5235, 4422, 4381

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5235, 4422, 4381

Auto

30.2 25%

Teleop

69.8 58%

Endgame

21.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5697, 10614, 10978

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5697, 10614, 10978

Auto

21.6 22%

Teleop

55.4 56%

Endgame

22.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score120.5pts

Blue projected score92.9pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.6
Score range: 76–137
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 183 vs event baseline 96.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

284.1Season APEX176.7

30.2Auto21.6

69.8Teleop55.4

21Endgame22.1

0Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	26
teleop	66	30
endgame	8	23
foul	0	0
total	104	79

Result

Final score

104 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 15.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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