FIM District Mt Pleasant Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

85.13 – 75.96

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

135 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 47 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 223.1 ±12.2

6071The Aluminators

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 20.69Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 26.95Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6033Gadget Agents

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 37.49Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 378.5 ±10.5

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 55.83Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9673Volt Vespids

Season APEX 72.2Event APEX -0.05Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5982Merrill's Circuits of Destruction

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 20.18Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6071, 4422, 6033

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6071, 4422, 6033

Auto

18.8 21%

Teleop

38.6 43%

Endgame

32.7 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 573, 9673, 5982

/ 100 compat

Projected

76 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 573, 9673, 5982

Auto

18.5 26%

Teleop

42.2 59%

Endgame

10.7 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85.1pts

Blue projected score76pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.2
Score range: 59–102
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 255 vs event baseline 93.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

223.1Season APEX378.5

18.8Auto18.5

38.6Teleop42.2

32.7Endgame10.7

0Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	21
teleop	69	58
endgame	27	41
foul	0	0
total	135	120

Result

Final score

135 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 47 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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