FIM District Mt Pleasant Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

68.74 – 66.5

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

66 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 5.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 212.4 ±11.6

6642Stingers of Steel

Season APEX 45Event APEX 17.99Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2405Techno Trojans

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 28.83Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5982Merrill's Circuits of Destruction

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 21.92Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 343.5 ±11.2

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 56.49Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1711RAPTORS

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 8.26Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5231The Radical Jays

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 1.75Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6642, 2405, 5982

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6642, 2405, 5982

Auto

16.8 24%

Teleop

38.2 55%

Endgame

14.6 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 573, 1711, 5231

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 573, 1711, 5231

Auto

21.2 33%

Teleop

35.3 55%

Endgame

7.6 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score68.7pts

Blue projected score66.5pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.2
Score range: 51–85
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 125 vs event baseline 90.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

212.4Season APEX343.5

16.8Auto21.2

38.2Teleop35.3

14.6Endgame7.6

60Consistency131

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	26
teleop	34	22
endgame	11	11
foul	0	0
total	66	59

Result

Final score

66 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 5.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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