Qualification · Qualification 33
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
61.77 – 51.58
53%47%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
79 – 77
Prediction correct · off by 21.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.1 ±11.7
Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 19.21Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 44.5Event APEX -0.15Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 42.71Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 194.1 ±13.3
Season APEX 58.8Event APEX 33.26Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 29.34Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 63.8Event APEX -11.02Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5982, 7210, 4422
48
/ 100 compatProjected
61.8 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 5982, 7210, 4422
Auto
22.9 36%
Teleop
29.2 45%
Endgame
12.3 19%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 32%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7109, 2405, 9755
49
/ 100 compatProjected
51.6 pts
~1.2 RP (district)
Teams: 7109, 2405, 9755
Auto
11.6 24%
Teleop
29.2 59%
Endgame
8.4 17%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 32%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.19
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score61.8pts
Blue projected score51.6pts
Red win probability53%
Event bonus sample190alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 32%, blue 21%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 10.2
- Score range
- 36–78
- Upset likelihood
- 47%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
267.1Season APEX194.1
22.9Auto11.6
29.2Teleop29.2
12.3Endgame8.4
0Consistency105
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 28 | 19 |
| teleop | 36 | 41 |
| endgame | 15 | 17 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 79 | 77 |
Result
Final score
79 – 77
Prediction correct · off by 21.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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