FIM District Mt Pleasant Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

56.68 – 46.92

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

103 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 28.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.9 ±12.2

10978Complete Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 9.6Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2405Techno Trojans

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 25.22Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9594Ashley Bears

Season APEX 66.1Event APEX 21.86Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228.9 ±11.7

8873Rockefeller Robotics

Season APEX 171.8Event APEX 35.9Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5231The Radical Jays

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 9.91Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9650Mio Thunderbotz

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 1.11Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10978, 2405, 9594

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10978, 2405, 9594

Auto

13.0 23%

Teleop

28.5 51%

Endgame

14.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8873, 5231, 9650

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8873, 5231, 9650

Auto

15.5 33%

Teleop

25.1 54%

Endgame

5.9 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score56.7pts

Blue projected score46.9pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.8
Score range: 32–72
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 139 vs event baseline 85.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

220.9Season APEX228.9

13Auto15.5

28.5Teleop25.1

14.2Endgame5.9

80Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	9
teleop	76	21
endgame	12	6
foul	0	0
total	103	36

Result

Final score

103 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 28.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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