FIM District Mt Pleasant Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

85.66 – 83.71

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

27 – 99

Prediction missed · off by 37 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 143.1 ±12.7

5234Marauder Bots

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 19.68Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5162The Big Red Theory

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 40.08Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5084Team FridgeBot

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 25.9Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 300.1 ±11.7

10614AEA Robolution

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 6.89Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6533BeaverTech noducks

Season APEX 45Event APEX 9.82Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 67Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5234, 5162, 5084

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5234, 5162, 5084

Auto

18.1 21%

Teleop

35.5 41%

Endgame

33.0 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10614, 6533, 573

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10614, 6533, 573

Auto

15.1 19%

Teleop

46.1 57%

Endgame

19.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85.7pts

Blue projected score83.7pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2
Score range: 69–101
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 126 vs event baseline 84.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

143.1Season APEX300.1

18.1Auto15.1

35.5Teleop46.1

33Endgame19.7

56Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	9
teleop	8	71
endgame	10	19
foul	0	0
total	27	99

Result

Final score

27 – 99

Prediction missed · off by 37 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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