FIM District Mt Pleasant Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

128.97 – 37.34

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

61 – 68

Prediction missed · off by 49.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 283.9 ±11

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 85.25Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3767TC Titans

Season APEX 116.7Event APEX 25.74Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9661Huskie STEAM

Season APEX 66.7Event APEX 17.98Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 191.9 ±12.8

3688Norsemen

Season APEX 84Event APEX 28.07Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9755Red Devil Robotics

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX -8.74Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9662Valley Lutheran Chargers

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 18.01Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4381, 3767, 9661

/ 100 compat

Projected

129 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4381, 3767, 9661

Auto

32.1 25%

Teleop

70.3 55%

Endgame

26.4 20%

Strengths

· 4381 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3688, 9755, 9662

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3688, 9755, 9662

Auto

3.8 10%

Teleop

20.6 54%

Endgame

14.1 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.87 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score129pts

Blue projected score37.3pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 91.6
Score range: 22–144
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 129 vs event baseline 85.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

283.9Season APEX191.9

32.1Auto3.8

70.3Teleop20.6

26.4Endgame14.1

104Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	21
teleop	35	35
endgame	8	7
foul	0	5
total	61	68

Result

Final score

61 – 68

Prediction missed · off by 49.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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