FIM District Mt Pleasant Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

31.95 – 67.07

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 65 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 189 ±12.1

5084Team FridgeBot

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 5.4Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9661Huskie STEAM

Season APEX 66.7Event APEX 7.18Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2405Techno Trojans

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 19.37Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 206.1 ±12.8

7109Clare Chaos Theory

Season APEX 58.8Event APEX 9.02Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 64.62Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5162The Big Red Theory

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX -6.57Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5084, 9661, 2405

/ 100 compat

Projected

32 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5084, 9661, 2405

Auto

6.5 21%

Teleop

9.5 30%

Endgame

15.7 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7109, 4381, 5162

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7109, 4381, 5162

Auto

13.0 20%

Teleop

41.3 63%

Endgame

11.5 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score32pts

Blue projected score67.1pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.1
Score range: 18–81
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 229 vs event baseline 78.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

189Season APEX206.1

6.5Auto13

9.5Teleop41.3

15.7Endgame11.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	30
teleop	35	92
endgame	10	42
foul	0	0
total	65	164

Result

Final score

65 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 65 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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