FIM District Mt Pleasant Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

57.25 – 52.93

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 98

Prediction missed · off by 29.2 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 156.3 ±12.7

10614AEA Robolution

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 7.35Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9594Ashley Bears

Season APEX 66.1Event APEX 21.9Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5234Marauder Bots

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 28Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 216.8 ±12.1

5436Cyber Cats

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 7.35Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5110Roboherd

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 28Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2405Techno Trojans

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 17.58Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10614, 9594, 5234

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10614, 9594, 5234

Auto

10.0 18%

Teleop

23.9 43%

Endgame

21.5 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5436, 5110, 2405

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5436, 5110, 2405

Auto

8.5 16%

Teleop

23.7 45%

Endgame

20.6 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score57.3pts

Blue projected score52.9pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.3
Score range: 42–68
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 142 vs event baseline 63.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

156.3Season APEX216.8

10Auto8.5

23.9Teleop23.7

21.5Endgame20.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	24
teleop	17	36
endgame	14	38
foul	0	0
total	44	98

Result

Final score

44 – 98

Prediction missed · off by 29.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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