FIM District Mt Pleasant Event presented by AT&T

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

21.44 – 31.18

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

85 – 14

Prediction missed · off by 40.4 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254.4 ±11.6

9773Cardinal Robotics

Season APEX 89.6Event APEX 1.54Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6100MS Mobots

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 7.02Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5982Merrill's Circuits of Destruction

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 12.88Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 148.1 ±13.3

5231The Radical Jays

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 6.05Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9755Red Devil Robotics

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 1.54Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5084Team FridgeBot

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 23.59Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9773, 6100, 5982

/ 100 compat

Projected

21.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9773, 6100, 5982

Auto

6.5 30%

Teleop

6.9 32%

Endgame

8.0 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5231, 9755, 5084

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5231, 9755, 5084

Auto

6.4 21%

Teleop

17.8 57%

Endgame

6.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score21.4pts

Blue projected score31.2pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.7
Score range: 9–43
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 99 vs event baseline 65.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254.4Season APEX148.1

6.5Auto6.4

6.9Teleop17.8

8Endgame6.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	4
teleop	53	2
endgame	14	8
foul	0	0
total	85	14

Result

Final score

85 – 14

Prediction missed · off by 40.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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